tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6894866515532737257.post1769785198282771859..comments2024-03-27T01:01:09.785-07:00Comments on Probably Overthinking It: Bayes theorem in real lifeAllen Downeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01633071333405221858noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6894866515532737257.post-22708623404532384872015-08-27T11:55:37.535-07:002015-08-27T11:55:37.535-07:00Not possible in this case because the detector in ...Not possible in this case because the detector in the basement is wired (not plug in). But your idea is excellent.Allen Downeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01633071333405221858noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6894866515532737257.post-7507316400780844902015-08-27T11:42:50.561-07:002015-08-27T11:42:50.561-07:00Some fine Bayesian reasoning. Experimental desig...Some fine Bayesian reasoning. Experimental design, not so great. Since you have a second detector in the basement, why not immediately tell your wife to go and fetch it? Two independent detectors going off upstairs (but not in the basement) updates your probabilities to close to 1 and 0 immediately.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15987132500150157640noreply@blogger.com