tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6894866515532737257.post8754370668378154976..comments2024-03-28T21:59:14.517-07:00Comments on Probably Overthinking It: Secularization in America, part one.Allen Downeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01633071333405221858noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6894866515532737257.post-88629586156528784412012-06-20T07:53:03.620-07:002012-06-20T07:53:03.620-07:00Interesting. I am not sure the time scale of the ...Interesting. I am not sure the time scale of the GSS is right for answering this question -- I think the kind of security in this hypothesis is more like security of life and property. I don't think variations in regional economic performance would get at it.<br /><br />[But I should explain when I express this kind of skepticism that I am explaining why I will probably not pursue this question, not arguing that no one should.]Allen Downeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01633071333405221858noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6894866515532737257.post-90931612915848459642012-06-20T07:40:27.636-07:002012-06-20T07:40:27.636-07:00Yes, GSS questions include "Were you born in ...Yes, GSS questions include "Were you born in this country?", "Were your parents born in this country?" and "How many of your grandparents were born in this country?" It really is an amazing dataset.<br /><br />So one could certainly dive deeper into this question (although I probably won't).Allen Downeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01633071333405221858noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6894866515532737257.post-40485230837284830462012-06-19T17:23:01.031-07:002012-06-19T17:23:01.031-07:00According to the first graph (which I would think ...According to the first graph (which I would think would be the relevant one) "other" is now at about 3%, so a 1% influx might have had a significant impact over the past several decades, where the number has been bumping along at 1-3% of the total. Maybe I'm not reading the graph correctly, but it could account for as much as a 50% relative increase in "other" (from 2% to 3%), if I've read it right. Also, many of these immigrants are young and have children (and grandchildren, you are looking at a 40-year interval here). <br /><br />It would be interesting to see how this all works out. I guess the information isn't in the polling data, though (i.e., when people were asked about their religious preference, were they also asked about their or their parents' immigration status? Probably not.)Bill Jefferyshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03666872494092692149noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6894866515532737257.post-65116067627654039602012-06-19T15:21:57.233-07:002012-06-19T15:21:57.233-07:00As I recall, one of the major supposed driving for...As I recall, one of the major supposed driving forces in the secularization hypothesis is increasing economic security (presumably leading to reduced need for comfort drawn from intangible sources). It would be very interesting to see if the trends in the data you have correlate with changing wealth. If your data is broken down by state, for example, what are the slopes like when states are sorted by economic progress over the relevant period?Tom Campbell-Rickettshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387943617652130729noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6894866515532737257.post-77418664977691581582012-06-19T11:57:11.178-07:002012-06-19T11:57:11.178-07:00Some, but probably not most of it. I found some r...Some, but probably not most of it. I found some relevant numbers here:<br /><br />http://www.migrationinformation.org/datahub/historicaltrends.cfm<br /><br />Between 1970 and 2010, the number of US residents born in Asia (including the Middle East) increased by about 4 million, or about 1% of the population. So that could account for at most 1 percentage point of change in the Other category.Allen Downeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01633071333405221858noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6894866515532737257.post-8528568935203581562012-06-19T11:25:30.422-07:002012-06-19T11:25:30.422-07:00How much of the increase in "other" is d...How much of the increase in "other" is due to immigration from, e.g., Asia, the Middle East?Bill Jefferyshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03666872494092692149noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6894866515532737257.post-12798301171851270332012-06-19T10:04:02.752-07:002012-06-19T10:04:02.752-07:00Hi Bruce. The nice folks at the GSS made some cha...Hi Bruce. The nice folks at the GSS made some changes in 1994 to include more religions, including a generic "Christian." For my analysis, I am lumping Christian back in with Protestant, and all other religions into Other. The numbers are small enough that it doesn't make much of a difference.<br /><br />The trend you pointed out is interesting, but I suspect that people who prefer "follower of Jesus" will accept "Christian" if it is one of the options, or Other if they are particularly contentious.<br /><br />So no, I am not treating the increase in Other as a sign of secularization, just None.<br /><br />Thanks for the comment!Allen Downeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01633071333405221858noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6894866515532737257.post-12933960442136190692012-06-19T08:42:52.449-07:002012-06-19T08:42:52.449-07:00Another trend you may be unaware of - some evangel...Another trend you may be unaware of - some evangelical Christians increasingly refuse to identify as being in a denomination, and some even have dropped calling themselves "Christians" at all - rather, they're "followers of Jesus".<br /><br />I suspect this may impact such surveys. How much? Nobody knows - no one, to my knowledge, who conducts such surveys is even aware the trend exists.<br /><br />But the upshot is, the increase in the "other" category does not necessarily mean growing secularization.Bruce Wilsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13811407844460630916noreply@blogger.com