tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6894866515532737257.post4082658946950807082..comments2021-11-30T03:39:27.435-08:00Comments on Probably Overthinking It: Two Hour Marathon in 2045Allen Downeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01633071333405221858noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6894866515532737257.post-5030028128759447362015-11-03T07:20:11.392-08:002015-11-03T07:20:11.392-08:00Just stumbled on this post. Your graphs plot year...Just stumbled on this post. Your graphs plot years vs MPH but not years vs the actual records for these events. The graph depicting MPH (a rate) essentially represents the derivative of the actual record. If the derivative graph is linear then a graph depicting the actual records would appear quadratic.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05529553090042144253noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6894866515532737257.post-41039702821990929642011-08-24T16:02:58.405-07:002011-08-24T16:02:58.405-07:00It's possible, but then we need an explanation...It's possible, but then we need an explanation of why technological change yields linear improvement. So that's another article!<br /><br />Thanks for the link to your post -- you have pulled together some interesting results. One more for the list, maybe: have you looked into the Flynn effect?Allen Downeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01633071333405221858noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6894866515532737257.post-58660477793164851312011-08-24T14:53:17.413-07:002011-08-24T14:53:17.413-07:00It is possible there are two trends taking place h...It is possible there are two trends taking place here. That the number of people trying things produces a linear improvement. And that technological progress produces a linear improvement. and we are seeing both at the same time? Both more runners and runners on blood boosting later on epo also produced improvements?<br /><br />BTW I quoted this article fairly extensively here http://liveatthewitchtrials.blogspot.com/2011/08/human-progress.html If I have said anything out of turn I will remove it.Iamreddavehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02768287658329807075noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6894866515532737257.post-47368848426266654852011-08-15T13:33:01.942-07:002011-08-15T13:33:01.942-07:00Good question. If it's true that testing an e...Good question. If it's true that testing an exponentially increasing population yields straight-line trends, then technological changes would shift the line upward, and continuous improvements would yield accelerating curves. Since the curves are not accelerating, it seems that technology is not the factor that determines the shape of these curves (at least for running).Allen Downeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01633071333405221858noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6894866515532737257.post-61262050121176787102011-08-15T13:06:32.322-07:002011-08-15T13:06:32.322-07:00Brilliant post. An interesting question is how muc...Brilliant post. An interesting question is how much improvement is due to technology and how much to larger number of people trying each task. “From 1964 to 1988 the relative strength of the world record holders in those weight classes increased by 21% …The same analysis in other types of sports, where there had been some changes in training methods over the same period of time, revealed that the maximum improvement was only 9% “ The Effect of Testing for Performance Enhancing Drugs on the Progress of World Records in Weightlifting<br />http://www.dynamic-eleiko.com/sportivny/library/farticles006.htmlIamreddavehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02768287658329807075noreply@blogger.com