tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6894866515532737257.post6755063576816842369..comments2021-11-30T03:39:27.435-08:00Comments on Probably Overthinking It: Freshman hordes regress to the meanAllen Downeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01633071333405221858noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6894866515532737257.post-30548742641077067042013-04-26T13:48:34.081-07:002013-04-26T13:48:34.081-07:00Yes, that would probably be a better model for pre...Yes, that would probably be a better model for prediction. The model I used here has the regrettable property that it gives substantial weight to the earliest data points.<br /><br />I started out with a quadratic model because I was interested in testing whether there is a slope and (since there is) whether there is evidence of acceleration. With the quadratic model, I can run simple tests on the coefficients.<br /><br />Obviously the quadratic model can't go on forever, but it has been holding up better than expected.Allen Downeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01633071333405221858noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6894866515532737257.post-18908120951038631662013-04-26T12:04:10.534-07:002013-04-26T12:04:10.534-07:00I don't think modeling the temporal correlatio...I don't think modeling the temporal correlation will change the conclusions. Confidence and prediction intervals would be a bit wider. There appears to be evidence of moderate temporal correlation in no attendance, maybe some in no religion, and little to none in gender gap.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08304707549245817059noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6894866515532737257.post-80007447001132029012013-04-10T21:03:51.582-07:002013-04-10T21:03:51.582-07:00I would have thought a time series (ARIMA) model w...I would have thought a time series (ARIMA) model would have been more appropriate than a quadratic model, since these are after all time series data.nxskokhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07597472423849376973noreply@blogger.com